Housing Is Slowing. How Much of It Is Just Fall?

UPGRADE WITH LIBERTAS & EXP REALTY

AGENT BRIEFING · MARKET UPDATE

Hi {{first_name|there}},

A seller gets fewer showings in October than in June and assumes the market is falling apart. A buyer sees more available homes and decides prices must be headed for a crash.

Both are drawing a big conclusion from an incomplete picture.

Housing has a calendar. Activity usually builds in spring, stays elevated through summer, and eases as families settle into school and the holidays approach. But this fall’s housing numbers deserve attention beyond the usual seasonal explanation.

Bill McBride’s October 21 CalculatedRisk report brings together several warning signs: weaker mortgage demand, rising inventory, and deteriorating builder confidence. Our reading: agents need to acknowledge the slowdown while helping clients understand which comparisons actually matter.

September pending home sales fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Every region recorded declines.

Pending sales measure signed contracts before closing, making them a useful indication of the business moving through the pipeline. NAR attributed September’s weakness to rapidly rising mortgage rates.

The regional differences matter. A national headline cannot tell a seller how much competition exists in their neighborhood or whether buyers are still moving quickly at their price point.

NAR’s historical seasonality analysis illustrates how much activity can change during an ordinary year. Average daily existing-home sales run higher during April through June, remain relatively strong through September, and then fall during October and November.

Weather, school schedules, and holidays all influence when households shop and move. These patterns vary by location.

That historical fall decline is meaningful. A quieter open house or fewer weekly showings can partly reflect the calendar.

But seasonality cannot explain away an 11.3% decline from the same month last year. That comparison already puts September against September, although financing conditions, weather, and other influences can still differ.

Also, check whether a report is seasonally adjusted before interpreting its monthly change. Seasonal adjustment attempts to remove recurring calendar patterns. Subtracting another assumed “fall slowdown” from an already adjusted figure would count the seasonal effect twice.

McBride reports that active single-family inventory for the week ending October 16 was 5.3% above the same week in 2025, but still 3.2% below the comparable week in 2019. Mortgage purchase applications were down 18% year over year on an unadjusted basis. These measures cover different parts of the market and should be read together, rather than treated as interchangeable sales statistics.

Our interpretation: buyers may have more choices while financing remains a substantial obstacle. That can increase pressure on overpriced listings without producing the same result for every home.

October builder confidence fell to 29, its lowest reading since June 2012. NAHB also reported that 43% of builders cut prices, while 65% offered sales incentives. Among builders cutting prices, the average reduction was 6%.

For agents selling resales near new construction, this deserves homework. A competing home’s advertised price may tell only part of the story. Ask about closing-cost assistance, financing incentives, and the terms required to receive them.

Give sellers a current competition report. Review comparable active listings, recent contracts, price reductions, and showing feedback. Explain how their property compares with what buyers can purchase today.

Help buyers evaluate the full payment. Have their lender compare actual financing options alongside taxes, insurance, and association fees. An incentive is useful only when the complete transaction works for that buyer.

Compare your market with the same period last year. Track new contracts, available inventory, and days on market within the relevant neighborhood and price range. Keep definitions consistent.

Stay in contact with people planning a spring move. Use the coming months to address repairs, financing, and timing. Preparation now gives clients more choices later.

Fall usually brings fewer transactions. This year, weaker demand adds another challenge. Your clients need an agent who can explain both—and help them make a decision based on the homes, financing, and competition in front of them.

👉 Forward this to your team and lender partners before your next client conversation.

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