📉 The Crash Already Happened. Now Do You Know Your Numbers?

GROW WITH LIBERTAS & EXP REALTY

🎧 Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify!

Somewhere in your market this morning, an agent is still waiting for the crash. They’ve been waiting for three years. They’re holding off on calling their sphere, holding off on that farm mailer, holding off on asking for the listing, because “once the market resets, things will pick up.”

Here’s the hard truth: the crash already happened. It happened three years ago, and the agents who stopped waiting are the ones taking the listings.

That’s how AGNT CEO Leo Pareja put it at eXp Con this month, as reported by HousingWire. He said the pandemic boom “stole tomorrow’s buyers,” and that we’ve “forgotten what normal looks like.” We’re now in a cycle of roughly 4 million existing-home sales a year, and rates near 7.5% are actually close to their historic average.

If you’re waiting for the market to come back to 2021, you’re waiting for something that was never normal in the first place. In Leo’s words: “Whether it is 3.9 million or 4.1 million existing home sales, life events drive all real estate decisions.”

So stop planning around the market you wish you had. Plan around the roughly 4 million families who will move this year because of a baby, a job, a divorce or a death, and make sure they know your name. (Our opinions are our own. We’re proud to be with eXp.)

In that same talk, Leo pointed out that Austin had one of the biggest year-over-year price drops in the country, down 4.46%, while Abilene, Texas, was up about 9%. Same state, opposite stories.

Nationally, only 54 of the 300 largest metros saw prices fall year over year in 2026, down from more than 100 in 2025. Inventory growth cooled from 28.9% to 5.9%. The market is stabilizing.

Your sellers see “prices falling” on the news and assume it’s happening on their street. The national headline doesn’t describe your market. Your local numbers do.

Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a 3.99 million annual pace, according to NAR. Inventory is up 4.6% from a year ago to 4.8 months of supply, close to pre-pandemic levels. The median price of $417,500 was up 1.3%, the 39th straight month of yearly gains.

That’s Leo’s 4-million “new normal” right there in the data. Prices are still rising, slowly, and buyers have more homes to choose from than they’ve had in years. Tell your buyers this is the window, before the agent down the street does.

Here’s the question we want you to ask yourself: what should every agent know cold about the market they sell in? Not the national median. Your market, your price range, your zip codes. If a seller asks and you have to say “let me get back to you,” you just lost the listing to the agent who knew.

Screenshot this list.

Your market numbers (by price range, zip code and school district, not just your whole market):

What are YOUR numbers?

Train your AI Business Bot to pull all the numbers for your specific areas every Monday and deliver them to you automatically. We’ll show you exactly how in tomorrow’s issue. By Monday morning, you’ll be the best-informed agent in your office.

Numbers turn a nervous seller into a client. Here’s how it sounds when a seller asks, “I read that prices are falling. Should we wait?”

When you know your numbers cold, you stop sounding like a salesperson and start sounding like the expert.

Then turn those same numbers into a 60-second update for your sphere.

Record it as a short video, text it, post it, and call your top 50.

That one update works with your sphere, your past clients, your open house visitors, your yet-to-be-sold listings and your FSBOs. One message, five spokes.

And if you answer every inquiry within minutes, you’re already ahead of most of your competition. A recent study found that most consumer phone and web inquiries to brokerages got no follow-up at all within 24 hours.

Talk about the appraisal before you write the offer. Show your buyer the list-to-sale ratio and recent comps so they know what the home is likely to appraise for, and agree on a plan in advance.

If the appraisal comes in low, don’t assume the seller won’t come down to the appraised value. Listing agents, prepare your sellers for this possibility before you ever get an offer. And of course, somewhere in between can be negotiated. The objective is to find a solution, not just to walk away.

Here’s how we see it. The agents who put in the real work of real estate are the ones who own a market like this. They understand they need more spokes in the wheel of lead generation, because the real work of real estate is consistent lead generation.

Leo Pareja said it best:

Your challenge this week: Pull all six market numbers for your top price range and send your 60-second update to 50 people. Then count your spokes. If you have fewer than four steady lead sources, add one this week.

Want someone in your corner holding you to it? Join Premier Coaching at PremierCoaching.com. Try it for 7 days for just $1.

We built a team of AI specialists that handles the busywork of running a real estate business, from follow-up to market reports, so you can spend your time with clients.

👉 Meet your AI team at HarrisAITeam.com

Ready to stop guessing and start producing?

🎯 Start Premier Coaching ($1 for 7 days, then $997 for 12 months): premiercoaching.com
💼 Build wealth with Tim's eXp team: whylibertas.com/harris
📲 Elite Coaching — text Tim directly: 512-758-0206

— Tim & Julie Harris

📬 Thanks for reading Harris Real Estate Daily. Share this with a colleague who needs clarity about where the industry is headed.

Forwarded by a friend? Sign up with just one click here.

Share this issue.