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 🌔 Good evening, housing visionaries! Part 1 of our housing surge series showed why the next 25 years won’t be a crash, but a boom fueled by trillions in wealth transfer, Millennials entering their prime buying years, and Gen Z right behind them.

But that was just the beginning. In Part 2, we dig into the next wave of forces that guarantee housing’s long runway: Boomers reshaping demand, undersupply keeping prices firm, and cultural forces proving the American Dream of homeownership is alive and unstoppable.

Let’s continue…. 👇️ 

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🏘️ Part 2: Why the Housing Boom Is Just Getting Started

6️⃣ Boomers Will Both Buy and Sell 🏡

Boomers still control the majority of U.S. housing wealth. As they retire, downsize, or relocate closer to family, they’ll both supply new listings to an inventory-starved market and drive demand for age-friendly, single-story, low-maintenance homes. Their activity alone sustains millions of annual transactions.

🌎 Lifestyle-driven shifts are emerging too: rural and off-grid demand has surged, with mortgage applications in rural areas up 80% since the pandemic began. Rural home list prices have grown 64% since 2019, outpacing metros (+42%) — yet rural homes remain ~14% more affordable Newsweek.

7️⃣ Undersupply Creates a Long Runway 🚧

Despite recent building, the U.S. remains short by 3.5–4.7 million homes — a record high shortage as of July 2025 Reuters.

Even with strong builder momentum — 1.43 million annualized housing starts in July 2025, including a 2.8% jump in single-family starts — output is still far below the 2 million/year pace needed to close the gap Reuters+2Axios+2.

📊 Lending data confirms demand pushing against supply: Indianapolis (+70.8%), Boston, San Jose, and Buffalo were among metros seeing the biggest jumps in purchase activity in Q2 2025. Yet purchase lending overall was still down about 5% year-over-year, underscoring that while buyers are activated, affordability challenges remain Reuters.

📦 Lots of new homes for sale, too. On the surface, the July 2025 new home sales figure (652K annualized) wasn’t terribly exciting. But the inventory of new homes for sale rose 7.3% to 499K units. Of that, 121K (about 24%) were already completed — the highest level since August 2009. That’s 2.2 months’ worth of sales just sitting there.

8️⃣ Life Events Always Drive Moves 🎉

Life doesn’t wait forever. Household formations — marriages, children, relocations, divorces, and multi-generational living — are still on the rise. Many moves were delayed, but not denied.

➡ Example Future Glimpse: By 2035, expect open houses filled with buyers moving because of blended families, remote‑work shifts, and retirement relocations — all at once.

These life-event-driven decisions will fuel both entry-level and move-up markets in the years ahead.

🧩 Struggling to Put the Pieces Together?

You’ve got the leads. You’ve got the drive. But turning it into consistent closings? That’s the hard part.

Here’s the truth: the agents who are thriving in this market aren’t just grinding harder — they’re getting smarter strategies straight from the top.

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9️⃣ The American Dream Still Means Homeownership 🇺🇸 

Poll after poll confirms it: owning a home remains the #1 aspiration of Americans. Unlike stocks or crypto, a home delivers pride, identity, and stability. That cultural pull ensures that once affordability allows, buyers come back.

But beyond sentiment, the financial advantages are profound. As the Aspen Institute reports, the median net worth of homeowners is around $400,000, compared to just $10,400 for renters — a disparity of nearly 40× AP News.

An even sharper picture emerges at the individual level. A 2025 analysis shows the average net worth for homeowners is $430,000, compared to only $10,000 for renters — meaning a typical homeowner’s net worth is 43× greater than that of a renter AP News.

📌 Wealth‑Building Snapshot:

• Median homeowner net worth: $400K+

• Median renter net worth: ~$10K

• Homeowners are 40–43× wealthier than renters.

So it’s not just the dream—it’s a proven vehicle for long-term wealth building.

🔟 Projections Show Decades of Strength 📊

We modeled U.S. home sales through 2045 using Census household forecasts, Harvard JCHS growth data, and NAR/Census run‑rates. The results are clear:

• 2030: Baseline ~5.5M sales (Boom: 6.1M)

• 2035: Baseline ~5.9M (Boom: 7.1M)

• 2045: Baseline ~5.9M (Boom: 6.7M)

That’s ~115M–129M transactions over two decades — steady, sustainable volume with no crash in sight.

🔍 In the shorter term, the NAR projects existing‑home sales will climb 7–12% in 2025, with mortgage rates averaging around 6.0% Stocktwits.

(A full year-by-year table and chart is available in our projection model.)

🔟➕ Bonus Point: The Rising Demand for Real Estate Agents

More sales mean more professionals will be needed to guide buyers and sellers. Our projections suggest:

• Today: ~1.5M NAR members handle ~4.8M annual transactions (~3.2 sales per agent)

• 2035 Baseline (~5.9M sales): ~1.8M agents required

• 2035 Boom (~7.1M sales): ~2.2M agents required

• Cautious (~5.2M sales): ~1.6M agents (flat)

That’s a 20–45% expansion in workforce demand over the next decade. At the same time, many older agents are retiring, creating natural turnover.

📈 And ATTOM’s lending data shows purchase activity rose in 97% of metro areas in Q2 2025 — particularly Washington, DC (+35.4%), Chicago (+28.1%), Los Angeles (+23.4%), and Houston (+17.6%) Reuters. That means not just more transactions, but more opportunities for skilled agents in every major region.

The real growth opportunity isn’t just numbers — it’s about developing the next generation of agents who are better trained, tech-enabled, and team-supported. For brokerages and leaders, this is the recruiting and coaching opportunity of a lifetime.

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✨ Bonus Mini-Point: Refinancing and Equity Unlock Value 💳🏠

Refinance activity surged in Q2 2025, with 689,217 loans originated (+16.4% quarter‑over‑quarter, +23.8% YoY), representing nearly 39.3% of all originations Reuters. Borrowers are seizing windows of opportunity when rates dip.

At the same time, 47.4% of mortgaged homes are now equity‑rich (loan balances no more than half of property value), up from 46.2% the prior quarter.

➡ That equity gives millions of homeowners fuel for move‑up purchases, investment properties, or cash‑out refinances — keeping housing liquidity high.

Additional Context: Government Signals a Turning Point

While this article has focused on demographic and economic fundamentals, it’s worth noting that public policy may join the accelerants:

Recent reports show that the current administration is considering declaring a national housing emergency this fall, an extraordinary step meant to address the twin challenges of high prices and limited supply Newsweek+9Reuters+9Bloomberg.com+9.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described it as an “all‑hands‑on‑deck” moment and suggested that simplifying permitting, standardizing zoning codes, and offering tariff exclusions on building materials are all on the table as part of an affordability push Newsweek+6Axios+6Stocktwits+6.

If implemented, these actions could speed up supply, reduce costs, and align public policy with the fundamental forces already pointing to a multi-decade boom.

✅ The Bottom Line

The U.S. housing market isn’t collapsing. It’s preparing for its biggest expansion in history.

• Millennials and Gen Z will guarantee decades of demand

• Boomers will release inventory and reshape product types

• Lower mortgage rates, lending surges, equity-rich owners, and potential federal action will unlock sidelined buyers

• The American Dream ensures homeownership remains non-negotiable

• Projections show 5.5M–7M annual sales as the new normal for the next 20 years

Alongside, the agent workforce must grow by 20–45% — a once-in-a-generation recruiting window.

This isn’t wishful thinking. It’s demographics, math, lending data, policy momentum, and culture aligning.

👉 The crash-callers will keep shouting. But demographic force, equity, and policy action all converge in one direction: up. The only question is — will you ride the wave, or miss it? 🌊🏡

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AND THAT’S A WRAP!

The next 20 years will mint the wealthiest generation of real estate agents yet. Make sure you’re one of them.

—Tim & Julie Harris
Harris Real Estate Daily

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