This website uses cookies

Read our Privacy policy and Terms of use for more information.

GROW WITH LIBERTAS & EXP REALTY

By Tim & Julie Harris · June 18, 2026

🎧 Check out our latest podcast!

🎧 Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify!

Your year isn't over. It's just getting started. In many markets, 43% of all the listings that hit the market this spring won't sell with the agent they were listed with. In some markets, that number is over 50%. That's the biggest expired wave in 25 years — and it's about to crash directly into your second half of 2026.

If you've been having a slow year, you've been handed the comeback opportunity of the decade. Here's the 10-listings-in-90-days plan and the math that makes it work.

The expired wave nobody's prepared for

For 25 years, the spring market has been the safety net of real estate. Whatever didn't sell in winter got moved in spring. Listings turned over. Buyers showed up. The cycle ran.

This year, the cycle is breaking. The combination of high rates, buyer hesitancy, sellers stuck at peak-2022 pricing expectations, and a glut of inventory in many markets means listings are sitting. By the time we hit October, the percentage of spring listings that quietly expired without selling is going to be the largest single cohort of unsold properties in a generation.

In some markets you'll see 43%. In some you'll see 52%. Either number is structural — not a blip, not a bad month, but the predictable result of the gap between seller pricing and buyer affordability finally catching up after three years of denial.

This is the most important context to internalize for your second half of 2026 — the volume of expireds coming over the next 90-120 days is going to be unprecedented, and most agents are completely unprepared for the opportunity.

Why expireds favor you specifically

Here's the part most agents miss about expired listings. The seller's original choice of agent was almost always relationship-based — somebody from church, somebody they know from the neighborhood, somebody their sister-in-law recommended. About 75% of all original listing decisions are made on relationship, not on professional credentials.

When that relationship-based agent fails to sell the home, your primary competitor disappears from the conversation entirely. The friend who got the original listing didn't perform. The seller is no longer looking for a friend — they're looking for someone who can actually get the job done. The relationship moat that protected your competition for the first 90 days is gone.

That dynamic alone makes expired listings dramatically easier to win than initial listings. The seller has been humbled by the market. They know the price was wrong, the agent was wrong, or both. They're more compliant on price, more reasonable on commission, and far less likely to put you through a three-agent interview process. Many of them have already decided they want a professional and they just need to find one.

The 10-listings-in-90-days plan

We've packaged the entire system into a single playbook for you — a step-by-step roadmap to generating more listings, faster, with no guesswork about what to do each day.

📥 Download your free copy here: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1rOGg9lDMWXaEtq1upfk66RkGn1RqMpu3

If you'd like hands-on support putting this into action, start your free 30-day trial of Premier Coaching. You'll get access to our daily Zoom coaching sessions, personalized guidance from our coaches to help you stay on track and achieve results faster, plus our scripts pack and daily tracker. Cancel anytime.

Got questions? Email us at [email protected]

Here's the structure underneath the playbook. The plan rests on three commitments — and the math compounds the moment you actually run it.

Commitment one — daily contacts in the right category. Five to 10 contacts per day with decision-making adults about selling real estate. Not buyers. Not social leads. Listing-focused conversations. The categories that work best for this window are expireds, FSBOs, past clients and sphere, and target-neighborhood door-knocking around your existing listings.

Commitment two — pre-qualification on every contact. Motivation, time frame, what they think the property is worth, what they owe, whether they're competing you against other agents. Don't go if you don't know. The phone call is the listing presentation. By the time you set the appointment, the listing should already be 80% won.

Commitment three — the pre-listing pack on every appointment. Sent 24-48 hours ahead. CMA, net sheet, marketing plan, complete paperwork with sign-here stickies, seller questionnaire. The pack does the heavy lifting so the appointment itself takes 15-45 minutes instead of two hours.

The math: 10 contacts per day × 20 working days = 200 contacts per month. Run through expireds at a conservative 7% set-appointment ratio = 14 appointments per month. Convert at a 70% take rate = roughly 10 listings per month. Across 90 days you're easily at 10+ listings even with significant slippage and bad days.

The plan isn't magic. It's the math of doing the work consistently for 90 days while your competition is sitting on the couch making TikToks.

Your magic number — the foundation underneath

Behind the 10-listings-in-90-days plan sits a more fundamental question — what's your actual magic number of listings?

The formula is simple. If you need a target annual income and you know your average commission, you can work backward to the exact number of active listings you need at all times to hit that goal.

A scenario for context:

  • Five active listings at all times.

  • $10,000 average commission.

  • Two listings sell per month on average (some months three, some months zero).

  • 24 closings per year.

  • $240,000 annual gross income.

That's the baseline. Now scale it.

  • 10 active listings at all times.

  • $30,000 average commission (higher-priced market).

  • Two listings sell per month.

  • $60,000 monthly income.

  • $720,000 annual gross.

Or stretch it further:

  • 20 active listings at all times.

  • $10,000 average commission.

  • 48 closings per year.

  • $480,000 annual gross.

The variables you control are the number of active listings at all times and the average commission per closing. Everything else — interest rates, headlines, market conditions, political noise — is largely outside your control. Stop trying to control those. Focus on what's actually movable.

The market has shifted your math

One important update for 2026 specifically — your magic number is probably higher than it used to be.

Back when listings sold in a weekend, you needed five active listings to produce two closings a month. Today, with longer days on market in most regions, you need closer to seven to eight active listings to produce that same two-per-month output. The agents who haven't adjusted are wondering why their income dropped 40% even though they're working the same way.

If your old magic number was five, your new magic number is probably seven. If your old number was 10, it's probably 13-15. The 1090 plan exists to close that gap fast for agents who fell behind the curve when the market shifted under them.

How to target expireds intelligently

If you're newer to expireds, go broad — geographic and price-range filters that fit your service area, but otherwise call everything. Volume is your teacher early on, and you'll learn the scripts faster by burning through more conversations.

If you're more experienced and you already have inventory, get strategic. The hierarchy:

One — expireds in neighborhoods where you already have listings. They've been driving past your sign for months. They already know you exist. You already know the neighborhood's dynamics. Conversion is dramatically easier.

Two — expireds in adjacent neighborhoods to your current inventory. Similar dynamics, same pool of buyers, but slightly outside your immediate sphere. Logical expansion.

Three — expireds in target neighborhoods one tier above your average sale price. If your goal includes raising your average commission, expireds are the cheapest, fastest way to break into a higher price point because the seller has already failed once and is open to alternatives.

Don't try to call every expired in your MLS. Filter to where you can actually win, where you can deliver value, and where the math works for your business.

The skill development case

Here's the unsexy truth most agents avoid — expireds and FSBOs are where listing agents are actually built.

Past-client and sphere calls are nice but they're easy. Everyone's friendly with you because they already like you. You'll never develop the script muscle or the objection-handling reflexes that separate top producers from average agents if you only ever call people who like you.

Expireds force you to handle real objections from real frustrated sellers in real time. "Why should I trust you when the last one couldn't sell it?" "What are you going to do differently?" "We're not lowering the price." "We're going to take it off the market and try again in the spring." You hear all of these in the first week of expired calls.

The agents who push through this become unstoppable. Past-client calls become effortless. FSBO calls become easy. Sphere conversations close themselves. Every other lead source gets easier because you've already developed the skills at the hardest end of the pool. Expireds aren't just a lead source — they're a training program.

The five-no rule

Here's the litmus test for whether you actually did the work today. If you didn't put yourself in a position to hear no at least five times from a decision-making adult about buying or selling real estate, you didn't work. You did administrative tasks. You did adjacent-to-real-estate activity. You didn't do the real work of real estate.

No from your kid doesn't count. No from your dog doesn't count. No from your spouse doesn't count. No from a TikTok algorithm rejecting your video doesn't count. Five no's from prospects is the daily minimum standard. Hit it and you've done the day's work. Miss it and you owe yourself another day.

This standard makes everything else clear. Posting on social media — not a contact. Sending a drip email — not a contact. Updating your CRM — not a contact. Driving to a coffee meeting that got rescheduled — not a contact. The only thing that counts is voice-to-voice or face-to-face conversations with people who could conceivably hire you to sell their home.

The fear conversation

Now the part that's actually keeping most agents stuck. The reason you haven't been calling expireds isn't strategic. It's psychological.

Your brain doesn't differentiate between real physical fear (a car coming at you in a crosswalk) and psychological fear (your mental image of an expired seller hanging up on you). Both manifest with the same fight-or-flight response. Your nervous system tells you to flee in both cases — and the only one where fleeing is actually useful is the car.

Psychological fear about prospecting is almost always manufactured worst-case scenarios that never happen. The expired seller who screams at you is rare. The expired seller who patiently listens to your script is common. The expired seller who's actively relieved that someone finally called them with a plan is more common than agents expect.

The way through is not around. You have to make the call. Then the next call. Then the next. After about 20 calls — usually within the first two days — the fear evaporates because your brain finally registers that the predicted catastrophe never came. From there, you're free. You can call as many expireds as your day allows, and the only limit becomes the size of your contact list.

The agents stuck at zero listings aren't stuck because they lack skill. They're stuck because they let the first 20 calls' worth of manufactured fear win.

Why this opportunity is unusual

Here's why the second half of 2026 is specifically different from the rest of your career:

The expired volume is unprecedented. Three to four times typical levels in many markets.

Your competition is the weakest it's been in decades. A generation of agents has been raised on portal leads and digital marketing — they've never had to prospect, and they don't know how to compete with sellers who've already been burned.

Buyers are returning to old-school behavior. Walking through open houses, driving neighborhoods, picking up the phone, talking to humans. The agents who do real work are getting disproportionate access to real leads.

AI has commoditized the digital layer. Whatever edge social media or branding once provided is collapsing as every agent's content output starts to look identical. The only remaining moat is human contact.

Sellers in this market need professionals, not friends. The relationship-only listing agent is failing publicly. Sellers are looking for actual competence.

None of these dynamics is permanent. By spring 2027, the expireds will be largely absorbed. Competition will recalibrate. New playbooks will emerge. The 90-day window between now and Halloween is the structural opportunity — and the agents who lean into it are going to enter 2027 with momentum the rest of the industry won't have.

What to do tomorrow

Three steps. Start tomorrow morning.

One — run the math on your magic number. How many active listings do you need at all times to hit your annual income goal? What's your gap from that number today? That's what 1090 closes.

Two — block the calling hours on your calendar. Two hours a day, every weekday, for 90 days. Treat them like a doctor's appointment. Nothing reschedules them. This is when the contacts happen.

Three — commit to the five-no daily minimum. Don't end the day until you've heard no five times from decision-making adults about selling real estate. That standard alone, sustained for 90 days, will change your business.

The plan is built. The opportunity is sitting in front of you. The expireds are coming. The only question is whether you'll be the agent picking up the phone or the agent watching from the couch.

Pick up the phone.

Ready to stop guessing and start producing?

💼 Build wealth with Tim's eXp team: whylibertas.com/harris
📲 Elite Coaching — text Tim directly: 512-758-0206

If you committed to five no's per day from real expired and FSBO calls for the next 90 days — how many of those 10 listings do you think you'd actually take by Halloween?

— Tim & Julie Harris

Founders of Tim & Julie Harris Real Estate Coaching | Publishers of Harris Real Estate Daily | Hosts of PowerHouseTalk | eXp Realty Sponsors at Libertas

What did you think of today's newsletter?

We love all types of feedback!

Login or Subscribe to participate

📬 Thanks for reading Harris Real Estate Daily. Share this with a colleague who needs clarity about where the industry is headed.

Forwarded by a friend? Sign up with just one click here.

GROW WITH LIBERTAS & EXP REALTY

Don't Just Change Brokerages. Upgrade.

Join a brokerage built around agent success.

Get access to industry-leading coaching, practical training, business systems, and a network of agents focused on growth.

Explore Libertas eXp Realty → whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206.

In partnership with

AI Agents Are Reading Your Docs. Are You Ready?

Last month, 48% of visitors to documentation sites across Mintlify were AI agents, not humans.

Claude Code, Cursor, and other coding agents are becoming the actual customers reading your docs. And they read everything.

This changes what good documentation means. Humans skim and forgive gaps. Agents methodically check every endpoint, read every guide, and compare you against alternatives with zero fatigue.

Your docs aren't just helping users anymore. They're your product's first interview with the machines deciding whether to recommend you.

That means: clear schema markup so agents can parse your content, real benchmarks instead of marketing fluff, open endpoints agents can actually test, and honest comparisons that emphasize strengths without hype.

Mintlify powers documentation for over 20,000 companies, reaching 100M+ people every year. We just raised a $45M Series B led by @a16z and @SalesforceVC to build the knowledge layer for the agent era.

Reply

Avatar

or to participate

Keep Reading