REAL ESTATE INSIGHTS
Harris Real Estate Daily
By Tim & Julie Harris · January 16, 2026
Housing has officially moved to the center of U.S. economic policy — and that matters far more than most people realize.
Trump has publicly signaled that housing is now a top priority, and that he plans to outline key elements of his housing agenda at the World Economic Forum in Davos. That alone is a major signal. Housing is no longer a background issue. It’s being elevated to a global economic talking point.
And when housing becomes priority-level policy, markets don’t just recover.
They re-rate.
Because what’s forming now isn’t a 2–3 year rebound, a rate-cut bounce, or a short-lived surge in prices.
Housing is entering a generational expansion cycle — one that could last 15 to 25 years.
That may sound bold. It isn’t.
It’s the logical conclusion when you put policy, demographics, supply math, mortgage reform, institutional capital, and an $82 trillion wealth transfer on the same page.
Let’s walk through it.
First, Let’s Define “The Cycle” (Because This Is Where Agents Get It Wrong)
When most real estate agents hear “housing cycle,” they think:
A few strong years
Then a downturn
Then a reset
That framework no longer fits the reality we’re in.
The cycle unfolding now is not a rate cycle.
It’s a full housing expansion cycle, driven by long-duration forces:
Demographics
Chronic housing undersupply
Mortgage and credit modernization
Institutional and political alignment around housing
This cycle:
Begins: roughly 2024–2026 (post-pandemic distortion and policy reset)
Builds momentum: through the 2030s (peak Millennial and Gen Z household formation)
Extends into: the early-to-mid 2040s (Boomer downsizing and completion of the wealth transfer)
That’s 15–25 years.
Inside that window, there will still be pauses, mini-cycles, and regional slowdowns. But the primary directional force remains intact.
That’s what makes this generational — not speculative.
Why the Fear Narrative Keeps Failing
For years, fear-based commentators have insisted a housing crash is imminent.
They keep missing the same point.
Demand didn’t disappear.
It was suppressed by friction — and that friction is now being actively targeted by policy.
Higher rates didn’t kill housing.
They paused it.
And now the system is being adjusted to function again.
Pent-Up Demand: The Pressure Is Real (and Measurable)
From 2020 through 2024, housing demand piled up behind a wall of friction:
Mortgage rates jumped from ~3% to ~7%
Inventory froze
Over 40 million homeowners became locked into sub-4% mortgages
Credit tightened at exactly the wrong time
Not because people didn’t want homes — but because the system stopped moving.
Conservative estimates show:
5–7 million households postponed buying
3–4 million existing homeowners would move if financing friction eased
Millions more households form every year regardless of rates
That’s 8–11 million potential transactions waiting to be released — not in one year, but over the early and middle phases of this expansion cycle.
That’s not recession fuel.
That’s stored demand.
Demographics: The Engine That Doesn’t Turn Off
Housing demand today isn’t cyclical. It’s structural.
Millennials are the largest generation in U.S. history and still in peak home-buying years
Gen Z is larger than Gen X and entering the market earlier than expected
Immigration continues to add baseline household formation
Baby Boomers aren’t disappearing — they’re downsizing, relocating, and reallocating equity
Demographics don’t create short booms.
They create multi-decade pressure.
The $82 Trillion Wealth Transfer Changes Everything
This is one of the most underappreciated housing tailwinds in modern history.
Over the next 20–25 years, roughly $82 trillion will transfer from Baby Boomers to younger generations.
Why this matters for housing:
A massive share of that wealth is home equity
Much of it transfers before death, not after
Down-payment assistance from parents is becoming normalized
Multi-generational buying is accelerating
This does three powerful things:
Expands buyer qualification
Reduces sensitivity to mortgage rates
Creates durable price and demand support
This is demand that does not require cheap money to exist.
That alone lengthens the cycle dramatically.
Credit Scoring Has Changed — Quietly Expanding the Buyer Pool
This is a critical shift most agents haven’t fully internalized.
Mortgage underwriting is modernizing:
Greater use of trended credit data
Alternative scoring models gaining traction
Rent, utility, and telecom payments matter more
“Thin-file” borrowers qualify more easily
Result: millions of renters just became more mortgage-eligible — without reckless lending.
This isn’t 2008-style risk.
It’s underwriting catching up to reality.
And a permanently larger buyer pool supports a longer expansion.
Mortgage Innovation: Unlocking Inventory Without Distress
The biggest bottleneck in housing today isn’t buyers.
It’s sellers who can’t move.
That’s changing.
Ideas actively being discussed or tested include:
Expanded loan assumability
Mortgage portability concepts
Standardized creative-financing frameworks
Longer-term mortgages (40–50 years) with guardrails
If even 10–15% of locked-in homeowners regain mobility:
Inventory rises
Listings increase without forced selling
Transactions accelerate without price collapse
That’s the healthiest kind of housing market.
“Build Baby Build”: Supply Is Finally Being Treated as a National Priority
Affordability is a supply problem pretending to be a pricing problem.
And policy is finally acknowledging it.
Builder incentives under discussion include:
Federal land made available for housing
Fast-tracked permitting tied to federal funding
Improved construction financing support
Depreciation and tax treatment improvements
Infrastructure grants linked to zoning reform
Support for modular and prefab construction
Builders don’t lack demand.
They lack certainty, speed, and margin — and policy can directly improve all three.
Even a 20–30% increase in housing starts over several years doesn’t oversupply the market.
It simply slows the deficit.
The Housing Shortage Reality Check
The U.S. is short millions of homes.
Even aggressive building:
Takes years to scale
Faces labor and zoning constraints
Must serve growing demand at the same time
There is no realistic scenario where supply overwhelms demand this decade.
That’s math.
The GSE Reset: Why Mortgage Finance Reform Matters
No generational housing boom happens without a durable mortgage system.
That’s why reform discussions around the government-sponsored enterprises matter so much.
The goal isn’t chaos or deregulation.
It’s:
Stronger capitalization
Clearer long-term structure
More private capital participation
A mortgage system built for durability, not crisis management
You don’t need a final endgame announcement for this to be bullish.
You just need direction.
Markets respond to clarity — and housing finance is being repositioned for the long term.
That supports decades, not quarters.
Why Crashes Are Structurally Harder Now
This isn’t 2008.
Crashes require forced selling.
Forced selling requires:
High leverage
Short-term debt
Equity collapse
Credit seizure
Today’s housing market looks very different:
Record homeowner equity
Long-term fixed-rate mortgages
Owners who don’t need to sell
Buyers planning to hold, not flip
That doesn’t mean prices can’t cool locally.
It means systemic collapse is structurally harder — and that matters enormously for confidence.
This Is a Volume Boom — Not Just a Price Boom
Agents need to hear this clearly.
This expansion is about years of transactions, not a short-lived price spike.
That’s better for professionals:
More listings
More move-up buyers
More new construction
More first-time buyers
More repeat and referral business
This is career-building housing — not lottery housing.
Final Word
Housing is now a top-tier political and economic priority, with a major policy outline expected at Davos.
That matters.
Because when housing becomes priority-level policy, the market doesn’t just bounce.
It resets higher.
The demand is massive.
The demographics are locked in.
The wealth transfer is historic.
Credit is modernizing.
Builders are being incentivized.
Mortgage finance is being rebuilt.
Institutional capital is aligning.
Make Housing Great Again isn’t hope.
It’s happening — mathematically, demographically, and structurally.
The only real question is whether you’re positioned — or watching.
Written by Tim & Julie Harris
— Real Estate Coaches & eXp Partners
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